Educational equity is a core pillar of high-quality, coordinated development in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Existing research on educational equity within river basins has several prominent deficiencies. These deficiencies mainly include the failure to integrate macro regional disparities with micro practical conditions, as well as a scarcity of quantitative research concerning the full-chain transmission effects of educational development. Against this background, this paper takes the panel data of basic education resource allocation covering the 11 provinces and municipalities of the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2016 to 2023 as its core research sample. It constructs a comprehensive research framework combining spatiotemporal analysis and econometric testing to systematically investigate the regional disparities and spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of educational equity in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. This study adopts spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatiotemporal Markov chain transition probability matrices to characterize the binary spatiotemporal pattern of educational resource distribution within the basin, namely “high-to-high clustering and low-to-low lock-in”. It also discovers that the level of basic education shows strong path dependence, and the neighborhood environment exerts a significant influence on the probability of regional educational development transitions. Benchmark tests based on a two-way fixed-effects model confirmed that the allocation of basic education resources has a significant positive impact on regional higher education competitiveness, with the consolidation rate of compulsory education having the most pronounced effect. Furthermore, this effect exhibits marked regional and educational-stage heterogeneity, and basic education investment in underdeveloped upstream regions exhibits a significant “weakest-link effect”. Mediation analysis revealed the core transmission pathway: “allocation of basic education resources → improvement in student quality → enhanced higher education competitiveness”. Counterfactual scenario simulations showed that addressing shortcomings in upstream basic education can significantly narrow regional disparities in higher education competitiveness. Based on the above research findings, this study proposes targeted policy recommendations in four areas: establishing a mechanism for coordinated educational development within the river basin. Increasing investment in basic education in upstream regions; unblocking the transmission pathways across the entire education development chain; and establishing a dynamic monitoring and counterfactual evaluation mechanism. These recommendations provide scientific, empirical support and actionable practical guidance for the balanced development of education and high-quality coordinated development within the Yangtze River Economic Belt.
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Share and Cite
Li, N., Yin, Y., Le, W., Gao, Y. (2026) A Study on Regional Disparities and the Evolution of Educational Equity in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from a Spatio-temporal Perspective. Global Education Bulletin, 3(2), 40-55.