Amid the advancement of rural revitalization, a growing number of returner survival migrant entrepreneurs return to rural areas to grow rice and corn. Aiming to raise household income, they tend to pursue blind large-scale operation and full-industry-chain self-management due to the low unit output value of staple crops. Ignoring the mature agricultural trusteeship service system, they suffer mismatches between capital and management capacity and operation scale, which push up financial leverage and operational risks. Current entrepreneurial support measures mostly rely on qualitative publicity and simple data calculation, lacking quantitative analytical tools. Drawing on opportunity cost theory and the Cobb-Douglas (C-D) production function, this paper develops a full-cycle decision-making system. The system contains five modules, namely entrepreneurial access deduction, optimal scale measurement, parameter calibration, dynamic correction, and expansion pre-deduction. The system is verified through simulated samples and field survey data. The results show that the system can quantitatively assess opportunity costs, output, profits and multi-dimensional risks, identify irrational business behaviors and high-leverage risks, and achieve favorable model fitting performance. This quantitative system makes up for the deficiencies of traditional empirical tools and provides scientific support for operational decision-making of grain farmers and targeted grassroots agricultural assistance.
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Chen, X., Sulaiman, N. A. A. (2026) Research on Dynamic Decision Deduction System for Returners for Survival Entrepreneurship Engaged in Basic Crop. Journal of Social Development and History, 2(2), 97-105. https://doi.org/10.71052/jsdh/CMOI7871